The Near Horizon

Vol. 8 No. 1 | 2021 Edition
 
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Economic Crisis and Elections:
A Recipe for Turbulence in Latin America

Written by Jimena Blanco

Latin America experienced the second biggest pandemic-induced economic contraction of any region in 2020, just behind the Euro-zone, and Verisk Maplecroft’s Recovery Capacity Index—which measures more than a dozen factors that determine a region’s ability to recover from the crisis—puts Latin America below all but Africa in recovery capability.

 

The resulting social and economic distress has worsened longstanding inequalities and acted as a catalyst for civil unrest. Despite restrictive lockdowns, the pandemic crisis and economic shock sparked demonstrations across the region throughout 2020 as governments proved unable to meet even the most basic needs of their populations....

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Jimena Blanco leads Verisk Maplecroft’s Americas research team, with regional and thematic experts based in Argentina, Mexico, the U.S., and the UK. She is the Americas expert on Brazil and the Southern Cone, and has undertaken numerous field projects, including Human Rights Impact Assessments for clients across the region.

 

Fletcher Security Review (FSR): Dr. Nuzzo, thank you for taking the time to speak with FSR today. I would love if you could give us a brief introduction and tell me about what your role has been like since the start of the pandemic.

Jennifer Nuzzo (JN): I am an assistant professor at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. I am also a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security and a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. I have been involved working on COVID-19 since the first news of an outbreak in China. I run a project called the Outbreak Observatory, which does operational research to improve outbreak responses. One of our activities is to publish a weekly blog, which we do to take stock of what is going on in the world and to try to learn about events—even if we are not actively doing research projects on them, just reminding people that things are happening all the time....

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Dr. Nuzzo is a Senior Scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, an Associate Professor in the Department of Environmental Health and Engineering and the Department of Epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, and a Senior Fellow for Global Health at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Pandemic Preparedness:
A Conversation with Dr. Jennifer Nuzzo

Interviewed by Dana Hatic
 

The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) was established in 2015 and incorporates five countries of the former Soviet bloc—Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia. The declared goal of the project was to create a common market with 180 million consumers, coordinate economic policies, and eliminate non-tariff barriers. The idea behind the EAEU was to revive the economic ties that had broken down when the Soviet Union dissolved by facilitating better growth and more trade. Its member states claimed that the EAEU would emulate the European Union (EU) by adopting a system based on clear and transparent rules to promote free trade. The reality, however, is proving different. So far, the EAEU has failed to transform into a full-fledged economic union. Many outstanding issues require greater political will from the member states to work out common approaches and practices.....

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Katia Glod is a fellow with CEPA’s Russia program. As an independent analyst and political risk consultant based in London, she advises on the politics and economics of former Soviet countries. Glod has worked as the Belarus consultant for the European Endowment for Democracy in Minsk and as an election observer and analyst for OSCE countries, including Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Ukraine, Albania, and North Macedonia. She was previously a Robert Bosch Academy Fellow on the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House in London. She has also managed research projects on labor migration and public attitudes for the Eurasian Development Bank in Russia and Kazakhstan.

Glod’s research interests include political economy in the former Soviet countries; the EU’s Eastern Partnership; Russia’s policy towards former Soviet countries; and energy markets in former Soviet countries. Glod holds a Master’s degree in European Politics from Sussex University, and a BA in Humanities from the University of North Dakota.

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The Future of the

Eurasian Economic Union

Written by Katia Glod
 

Adversaries or Competitors
A Conversation on U.S. - China Relations with David Dollar

Interviewed by Dylan Land

Fletcher Security Review (FSR): How would you characterize the relationship between the U.S. and China today? Are the two countries adversaries or competitors? How might this change under the Biden administration?

Dr. David Dollar (DD): The relationship is very complicated. In some ways, the U.S. and China are collaborators on a global order and global public goods, and they are obviously competitors in a healthy economic sense—the same way the U.S. competes with Japan or Western Europe—but then I would say the U.S. has legitimate security concerns about China. I don’t think China is an adversary, but there’s the risk that it becomes an adversary. China is really the only country in the world powerful enough to be a threat to the United States, so that potential threat colors the relationship....

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Dr. David Dollar is a senior fellow in the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institution and host of the Brookings trade podcast, Dollar&Sense. Dr. Dollar was formerly the U.S. Department of Treasury’s economic and financial emissary to China, and served at the World Bank for 20 years, notably as Director of Development Policy and as Country Director for China and Mongolia. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Chinese History and Language from Dartmouth and a Ph.D. in Economics from New York University. 

Since 2014, naval forces operating in the Western Pacific have agreed on the need to moderate operational assertiveness against the risk that a miscalculation on the water could lead to wider confrontation. Increased activity by coast guards in these waters dictates that the same considerations should apply to white hull vessels. In 2015, President Obama and President Xi Jinping of China committed to developing behavioral norms for coast guards. The fact that six years later no such coast guard norms have materialized even though the naval services provide a readily adaptable blueprint is curious, to put it diplomatically.....

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Marc Zlomek is a Captain on Active Duty in the U.S. Coast Guard.  He is currently a Military Fellow at The Fletcher School. Marc has served in a variety of operational and legal assignments over his 22-year Coast Guard career.  He has also been assigned to the Department of State’s Office of Ocean and Polar Affairs, served as the general counsel for a major counterdrug task force, and worked as a staff attorney for Multi-National Force Iraq. He holds degrees from the United States Coast Guard Academy, Tulane University, and U.C. Berkeley.

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The Siren's Song of Coast Guard
Behavioral Norms in the Western Pacific

Written by Marc Zlomek