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Macro-Strategic Dynamics and Superpower Rivalry

Mike Studeman; Rear Admiral (RADM), U.S. Navy (Retired)

The world’s economic fragmentation is mirrored by geopolitical disintegration into competing power blocs. A loose blue bloc is roughly centered on North America, Europe/NATO, and U.S. allies in the Western Pacific like Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines. Recent White House actions to forfeit transatlantic solidarity in favor of Russia have opened a deep fracture in this traditional blue camp. An increasingly collusive anti-Western red bloc is composed of the PRC, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and client states such as Belarus, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Cuba, and Yemen. Nations comprising the rest of the world, including scores of minor powers and a dozen stronger middle powers such as India, Turkey, and Brazil, actively pursue their interests while enjoying increased agency in playing red and blue poles off one another. International institutions such as the United Nations, World Trade Organization, and World Health Organization that were set up after World War II to promote economic growth, global stability, and shared problem-solving have proven too anemic and internally compromised to countervail the slow implosion of the pre-existing international system. Faith in their efficacy has sunk to an all-time low. As a result, geopolitical struggles have returned with less restrained, muscle-bound players exerting more hard and sharp power to get their way. In many ways, the world is regressing toward a more Hobbesian milieu. 

 

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Mike Studeman is the former Commander of the Office of Naval Intelligence, former Director of Intelligence for the Indo-Pacific Command, and former White House Fellow. He is a MITRE National Security Fellow and recently published a leadership book called Might of the Chain: Forging Leaders of Iron Integrity.

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