​According to the U.S. Department of Defense, China currently possesses over 500 operational nuclear warheads and 350 Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs), with estimations that it could reach 1000 by 2030. This represents a substantial increase from the low 100s that China possessed for much of the post-Cold War era. These drastic changes have prompted discussions that China is abandoning its long-standing No-First-Use nuclear doctrine. This may have serious implications. For example, a CSIS China Power report concludes that the Chinese nuclear build-up disrupts strategic stability and undermines US nuclear deterrence.

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​The US has always been skeptical of China’s No-First-Use pledge. Former Commander of US Strategic Command Adm. Charles Richard famously remarked that he could “drive a truck through that No-First-Use pledge.” This skepticism is compounded by China’s lack of transparency regarding its nuclear capabilities. Indeed, with the US viewing the Chinese No-First Use policy and building up nuclear arms as irreconcilable, the US remains highly suspicious of China’s true intentions. Such suspicions have even prompted the Biden administration to devise a new and secret nuclear strategy focusing on Chinese nuclear threats.  

 

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